31% — Bill Belichick out before Jan 1, 2027
Kalshi 31% · 15 contracts · $730 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 13:00:00 UTC

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 65% probability that Bill Belichick departs his current coaching role by January 1, 2028, with higher confidence (31% probability) that an exit occurs before January 1, 2027. The probability reflects ongoing speculation about Belichick's tenure, influenced by team performance, contract terms, and reported discussions about his future. The 2026 NFL season serves as the primary catalyst—Win-loss records, playoff positioning, and any official statements from team ownership or Belichick himself will likely resolve much of this uncertainty. Near-term performance in September through December 2026 will be the key driver; sustained poor results or public conflict typically accelerates coaching departures, while playoff contention or strong team trajectory would push probabilities lower.

Key factors:
- Current 2026 NFL season results and playoff trajectory: poor performance or team dysfunction would increase exit probability; playoff contention would decrease it
- Expiration or renegotiation of Belichick's contract terms and whether ownership has expressed confidence or concern publicly
- Statements from team ownership or Belichick regarding his long-term commitment; any reported negotiations with other teams would meaningfully raise exit probability
- Historical coaching tenure patterns: NFL coaches at Belichick's age and experience level typically face higher turnover pressure if team performance declines
- Absence of recent contract extensions or public renewal discussions as of late August 2026, which would typically signal ownership commitment

Contracts:
- Dabo Swinney out before Jan 1, 2028: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 25¢ Kalshi $243 (weight 33%)
- Bill Belichick out before Dec 1, 2026: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 51¢ Kalshi $155 (weight 21%)
- Bill Belichick out before Jan 1, 2027: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 68¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 14%)
- Bill Belichick out before Feb 1, 2027: Before Feb 1, 2027 — 62¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 14%)
- Dabo Swinney out before Jan 1, 2027: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 3¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 6%)
- Mike Norvell out before Jan 1, 2027: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 36¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 5%)
- Kyle Whittingham out before Dec 1, 2026: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 2%)
- Dabo Swinney out before Dec 1, 2026: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 2%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T11:20:59.895Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafcoachleave
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Bill%20Belichick%20out%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev