21% — Bret Bielema out before Feb 1, 2027
Kalshi 21% · 19 contracts · $830 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:03 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract reflects the probability that Bret Bielema will be dismissed or depart as a college football head coach before February 1, 2027—roughly five months away. At 12%, the market is pricing this as an unlikely near-term outcome. Coaches typically face termination pressure during or immediately after losing seasons, and Bielema's team performance through the 2026 season will be the primary driver. If the team suffers significant losses or dysfunction, speculation about his job security would likely increase the contract price. Conversely, continued competitive success would keep the probability low. The resolution point is effectively the end of the regular season and any bowl game conclusions; January's coaching carousel activity and any public statements about his future status would provide the clearest signals before the February deadline.

Key factors:
- Team's win-loss record and bowl eligibility status through end of 2026 season will directly affect coaching stability
- Public comments from athletic director or booster groups regarding confidence in current coaching staff
- Comparison to market prices for other coaches (Luke Fickell at 25% suggests Bielema's situation is viewed as more stable)
- Timing of any contract extension or modification announcement during or after the season
- Presence or absence of reported buyout negotiations or departure talks in January

Contracts:
- Mike Norvell out before Feb 1, 2027: Mike Norvell — 90¢ Kalshi $391 (weight 47%)
- Dabo Swinney out before Feb 1, 2027: Dabo Swinney — 57¢ Kalshi $197 (weight 24%)
- Kalen DeBoer out before Feb 1, 2027: Kalen DeBoer — 10¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 12%)
- Luke Fickell out before Feb 1, 2027: Luke Fickell — 68¢ Kalshi $58 (weight 7%)
- Matt Rhule out before Feb 1, 2027: Matt Rhule — 12¢ Kalshi $51 (weight 6%)
- Brent Venables out before Feb 1, 2027: Brent Venables — 20¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 2%)
- Kirby Smart out before Feb 1, 2027: Kirby Smart — 8¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 1%)
- Steve Sarkisian out before Feb 1, 2027: Steve Sarkisian — 14¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:21:01.915Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafcoachout
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Bret%20Bielema%20out%20before%20Feb%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev