24% — Will the Big 12 win the College Football National Championship Kalshi 24% · 4 contracts · $619 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 16:17:05 UTC Why this matters: This 19% probability reflects market expectations that the Big 12 Conference will produce the national champion in the 2026 college football season. The Big Ten (38%) and SEC (36%) are favored, suggesting markets view these conferences as having stronger overall rosters and recent championship pedigree. The Big 12's probability is driven by conference-wide competitive depth and individual team strength, with outcomes depending on injuries, coaching performance, and bowl-game execution. The national championship game, scheduled for January 2027, will definitively resolve this contract. Between now and then, key information will emerge from regular season performance, conference tournament results if applicable, and the playoff selection process in December 2026, which determines which Big 12 teams compete for the title. Key factors: - Big 12 conference teams' win-loss records and strength of schedule through the regular season - Playoff committee rankings released in December 2026 and which Big 12 teams receive invitations - Relative health and performance of star players on Big 12 rosters compared to Big Ten and SEC competitors - Head-to-head results between Big 12 teams and top-ranked teams from other conferences - Betting handle and volume on Big 12 contracts, indicating whether sophisticated traders are shifting their positioning Contracts: - Will Any Other Conference/Independent win the College Football National Championship?: Any Other Conference/Independent — 11¢ Kalshi $549 (weight 89%) - Will the SEC win the College Football National Championship?: SEC — 45¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 8%) - Will the ACC win the College Football National Championship?: ACC — 9¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 4%) - Will the Big Ten win the College Football National Championship?: Big Ten — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-22T15:20:52.263Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafconf Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Big%2012%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20National%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev