6% — Who will win College Football Coach of the Year
Leader: Mario Cristobal at 6% · Kalshi 6% · 6 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 06:07:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Dan Lanning is currently priced at 5% to win the 2026 College Football Coach of the Year award, reflecting his position as the frontrunner among the tracked candidates but still indicating substantial uncertainty. The award typically goes to coaches who deliver exceptional results relative to preseason expectations—often those guiding teams to playoff positions or major conference championships. Lanning's probability reflects his recent track record at LSU and the team's projected performance this season. The main drivers of this probability are regular-season performance (particularly strength of schedule, win-loss record, and strength of conference competition) and late-season tournament results, which will clarify which coaches delivered the most surprising or dominant campaigns. The critical resolution period occurs in December 2026 through early January 2027, when bowl game results and playoff seeding become finalized, providing voters the full body of work needed to make their decision.

Key factors:
- Dan Lanning's team performance through the 2026 regular season and bowl games relative to preseason expectations
- Whether LSU competes in the College Football Playoff or high-tier bowl games
- Competitive performance of Lane Kiffin (5%), Curt Cignetti (3%), Ryan Day (3%), and Bob Chesney (3%) as alternative outcomes
- The voting pattern of the 2026 award voters, typically determined by media consensus in late December and early January
- Whether an underdog coach outside the five tracked contracts delivers an unexpectedly strong season that reshapes voter preferences

Contracts:
- Who will win College Football Coach of the Year?: Mario Cristobal — 6¢ Kalshi $27 (weight 3%)
- Who will win College Football Coach of the Year?: Dan Lanning — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win College Football Coach of the Year?: Mike Elko — 5¢ Kalshi $583 (weight 56%)
- Who will win College Football Coach of the Year?: Lane Kiffin — 3¢ Kalshi $422 (weight 40%)
- Who will win College Football Coach of the Year?: Curt Cignetti — 3¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 1%)
- Who will win College Football Coach of the Year?: Bob Chesney — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T05:20:49.820Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafcoty
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20College%20Football%20Coach%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev