16% — Montana wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season
Kalshi 16% · 6 contracts · $432 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-10-13 07:15:16 UTC

Why this matters:
An 11% probability means traders assess roughly a 1-in-9 chance that the University of Montana Grizzlies win the FCS National Championship in the 2026-27 season. This probability reflects market pricing for a team competing in a highly competitive Division I FCS landscape against dozens of other eligible programs. Montana's championship odds are driven by factors including current roster composition, recruiting strength, coaching continuity, and recent on-field performance relative to conference rivals. The main uncertainty will resolve through the regular season performance beginning in fall 2026 and continuing through the playoff tournament concluding in January 2027. Key upcoming developments include preseason rankings, early-season game results, and playoff seeding announcements that will significantly influence championship probability adjustments.

Key factors:
- Montana's recent FCS playoff history and win-loss record compared to current roster strength and returning starters
- Strength of schedule during the 2026-27 regular season and conference competition within the Big Sky Conference
- Comparative probabilities of rival programs (Montana State at 25% and South Dakota State at 4%) suggest relative market confidence levels
- Coaching staff continuity, recruiting class performance, and injuries to key players heading into fall training camp
- Playoff tournament structure and seeding outcomes, which determine tournament path difficulty and access to games against lower-seeded opponents

Contracts:
- Montana St. wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: Montana St. — 30¢ Kalshi $189 (weight 44%)
- Montana wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: Montana — 15¢ Kalshi $118 (weight 27%)
- South Dakota St. wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: South Dakota St. — 37¢ Kalshi $115 (weight 27%)
- Tarleton St. wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: Tarleton St. — 3¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 2%)
- South Dakota wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: South Dakota — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Lehigh wins FCS National Championship in 2026-27 season: Lehigh — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-10-12T16:20:52.433Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, October 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaaffcs
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Montana%20wins%20FCS%20National%20Championship%20in%202026-27%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev