12% — Will Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game Kalshi 12% · 20 contracts · $80 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-29 00:20:18 UTC Why this matters: This 10% probability reflects a relatively low likelihood that Notre Dame will advance to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game during the 2026 season. The market assessment is driven by two primary considerations: Notre Dame's historical performance and competitive positioning in college football, and the difficulty of reaching a championship game when eight teams qualify for the expanded playoff format. The regular season, culminating in early December 2026, represents the critical juncture—Notre Dame must achieve sufficient wins and rankings to secure a playoff berth, then win consecutive postseason games to reach the championship. Resolution will occur in January 2027 when the playoff semifinals and championship game conclude. The relatively low volume on this specific contract suggests modest market confidence compared to other football outcomes being traded. Key factors: - Notre Dame's 2025 final record and playoff seeding position will largely determine 2026 preseason expectations and baseline playoff probability - The strength of Notre Dame's 2026 schedule, including conference opponents and nonconference matchups, directly affects their ability to compile a playoff-qualifying record - Historical data shows teams with sub-50% championship game probability typically require either unexpected roster improvements or weak competitive peer performance to reach that threshold - Market volume of $2,591 over 24 hours is substantial, suggesting active pricing but not exceptional attention compared to major team championship contracts - Notre Dame's undefeated regular season probability is priced at 33¢, indicating the market views a championship game appearance as requiring near-perfect play Contracts: - Will Oregon reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Oregon — 7¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 50%) - Will Penn St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Penn St. — 6¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 50%) - Will Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Notre Dame — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ohio St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Ohio St. — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Texas reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Texas — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Indiana reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Indiana — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Georgia reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Georgia — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will LSU reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: LSU — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-28T23:20:49.231Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaaffinalist Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Notre%20Dame%20reach%20the%20College%20Football%20Playoff%20National%20Championship%20Game Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev