13% — Will Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game Kalshi 13% · 18 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 11:44:38 UTC Why this matters: This 13% probability indicates a 1-in-8 chance that Notre Dame reaches the College Football Playoff National Championship Game during the 2026 season. The relatively low odds reflect Notre Dame's historical competitiveness balanced against the high barrier of reaching a championship game—requiring both strong regular-season performance and favorable playoff seeding. The main drivers of this probability are Notre Dame's current roster strength, conference competition level, and injury developments through the season. The probability will shift materially as the regular season progresses, with Week 1 games in late August and early September providing the first concrete data on team performance. The Playoff selection committee's December announcement and bowl game outcomes will ultimately resolve whether Notre Dame advances to the championship game. Key factors: - Notre Dame's strength of schedule and head-to-head results against top-25 opponents through the 2026 regular season - Comparison to peer probabilities: Oregon (22¢), Indiana (18¢), and Miami (19¢) suggests markets view Notre Dame as materially weaker than these contenders - Playoff selection committee's final rankings in December 2026 determine the four semifinalists; Notre Dame must finish in top-4 to advance to championship - Injury status of key players on offense and defense, particularly any losses that occur during the season - Conference affiliation and playoff seeding implications—strength of non-conference wins versus conference opponents Contracts: - Will Ohio St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Ohio St. — 23¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 64%) - Will Texas reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Texas — 25¢ Kalshi $920 (weight 11%) - Will Alabama reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Alabama — 10¢ Kalshi $711 (weight 8%) - Will Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Notre Dame — 28¢ Kalshi $539 (weight 6%) - Will Georgia reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Georgia — 21¢ Kalshi $224 (weight 3%) - Will LSU reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: LSU — 9¢ Kalshi $157 (weight 2%) - Will Oklahoma reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Oklahoma — 12¢ Kalshi $144 (weight 2%) - Will Oklahoma St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Oklahoma St. — 3¢ Kalshi $137 (weight 2%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T11:21:47.608Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaaffinalist Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Notre%20Dame%20reach%20the%20College%20Football%20Playoff%20National%20Championship%20Game Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev