47% — Will Kansas win the Missouri vs Kansas college football game Kalshi 47% · 20 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 08:18:44 UTC Why this matters: This contract reflects a 40% probability that Kansas defeats Missouri in their college football matchup, indicating the market views Missouri as a slight favorite. The probability is shaped by historical head-to-head records between the programs, current roster composition, coaching staff effectiveness, and recent performance trends in the Big 12 conference. The game itself—scheduled for the upcoming 2026 football season—will definitively resolve this contract when played. Until then, factors such as preseason rankings, player injuries, transfer portal moves, and strength-of-schedule assessments could shift the probability. Changes in Kansas quarterback performance, defensive improvements, or Missouri team changes would likely move the odds meaningfully before kickoff. Key factors: - Historical win-loss record between Kansas and Missouri over the past five seasons - Current quarter-back and defensive line roster quality for each program relative to conference averages - Preseason polling rankings and recruiting class strength entering the 2026 season - Coaching staff tenure and track record in similar Big 12 matchups - Late-August/September health status of key players for both teams prior to the scheduled game Contracts: - Will San Jose St. win the San Jose St. vs USC college football game?: San Jose St. — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 21%) - Will Notre Dame win the Wisconsin vs Notre Dame college football game?: Notre Dame — 89¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 20%) - Will Hawai'i win the Hawai'i vs Stanford college football game?: Hawai'i — 35¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 18%) - Will New Mexico St. win the New Mexico St. vs Florida St. college football game?: New Mexico St. — 5¢ Kalshi $467 (weight 7%) - Will Florida St. win the New Mexico St. vs Florida St. college football game?: Florida St. — 93¢ Kalshi $422 (weight 7%) - Will Ole Miss win the LSU vs Ole Miss college football game?: Ole Miss — 51¢ Kalshi $342 (weight 5%) - Will Oklahoma win the Oklahoma vs Michigan college football game?: Oklahoma — 48¢ Kalshi $341 (weight 5%) - Will Ohio St. win the Ohio St. vs Texas college football game?: Ohio St. — 47¢ Kalshi $230 (weight 4%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:50.993Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafgame Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kansas%20win%20the%20Missouri%20vs%20Kansas%20college%20football%20game Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev