9% — Will UMass win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Kalshi 9% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 15:23:29 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the odds that UMass wins the Mid-American Conference Championship in college football this season. At 13%, the market is pricing UMass as a significant underdog relative to traditional powerhouses. The low probability reflects UMass's historical performance in the MAC and typical roster composition compared to stronger regional competitors. The main factor driving this level is UMass's competitive standing within the conference—teams with stronger recruiting classes, more experienced quarterbacks, or recent tournament success typically command higher odds. The biggest catalyst will be the actual 2026 season performance, with early games and conference matchups in autumn determining whether UMass can realistically contend for the title. Additional clarity will emerge as preseason rankings and team rosters are finalized in summer 2026. Key factors: - UMass's historical win-loss record and MAC standings placement relative to peer institutions - Quarterback depth, offensive line health, and defensive roster composition entering the 2026 season - Conference strength distribution—whether other MAC teams have significant roster improvements or coaching changes - Early season performance through September and October 2026 games against ranked or strong MAC opponents - Strength of schedule down the stretch and head-to-head results against top MAC contenders in the regular season Contracts: - Will Buffalo win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship?: Buffalo — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Central Michigan win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship?: Central Michigan — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Eastern Michigan win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship?: Eastern Michigan — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Miami (OH) win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship?: Miami (OH) — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Ohio win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship?: Ohio — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Toledo win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship?: Toledo — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Western Michigan win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship?: Western Michigan — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T15:20:48.747Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafmac Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20UMass%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20Mid-American%20Conference%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev