19% — Will Miami (OH) qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game Kalshi 19% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 23:15:18 UTC Why this matters: This 20% probability indicates a one-in-five chance that Miami University (Ohio) finishes among the top teams in the Mid-American Conference and qualifies for the conference championship game. The relatively low probability reflects Miami's historical performance in the MAC and current roster composition compared to stronger contenders like Western Michigan (30%) and Toledo (26%). Miami's chances depend on regular-season win-loss record, conference strength-of-schedule performance, and whether they avoid major injuries to key players. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the completion of the 2026 college football regular season in late November, when final MAC standings determine the two teams advancing to the championship game. Between now and then, weekly game results will incrementally clarify Miami's actual competitive position against division rivals and overall MAC competition. Key factors: - Miami (OH)'s current win-loss record and remaining schedule strength through November 2026 - Head-to-head and conference performance gaps versus Toledo (26¢) and Western Michigan (30¢) as measured by week-to-week rankings - Injury status of Miami's starting quarterback and defensive line depth as the season progresses - Miami's historical MAC championship appearance rate (frequency and recency of prior conference title game berths) - Conference-wide parity or dominance patterns—whether one or two teams significantly outpace the rest versus a more competitive field Contracts: - Will Akron qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game?: Akron — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Ball St. qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game?: Ball St. — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Bowling Green qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game?: Bowling Green — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Buffalo qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game?: Buffalo — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Eastern Michigan qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game?: Eastern Michigan — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Miami (OH) qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game?: Miami (OH) — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Toledo qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game?: Toledo — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Western Michigan qualify for the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game?: Western Michigan — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T21:20:54.255Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafmacqual Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Miami%20(OH)%20qualify%20for%20the%20College%20Football%20Mid-American%20Conference%20Championship%20Game Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev