20% — Will North Dakota St. win the College Football Mountain West Championship
Kalshi 20% · 5 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-28 13:30:18 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract estimates North Dakota State has a 10% chance of winning the College Football Mountain West Conference Championship in 2026. The Bison must compete against established programs in a competitive conference, which historically has favored schools with greater resources and recruiting advantages. The current probability reflects typical preseason assessments for mid-tier FCS programs attempting to win a Power Conference championship, an outcome requiring superior performance throughout the regular season. Key factors include roster strength, coaching decisions, and performance against ranked opponents during conference play. The championship will be decided following the conclusion of the regular season and Mountain West Conference tournament, with the winner determined after conference games conclude in November and December 2026.

Key factors:
- North Dakota State competes in the FCS (Football Championship Subdivision) while the Mountain West is a Power Conference, creating a structural competitive disadvantage
- The team's roster depth, transfer portal acquisitions, and recruiting class quality relative to conference opponents will directly affect conference standings
- Head-to-head performance against ranked Mountain West teams during regular season conference play will be the primary determinant of championship viability
- Conference tournament seeding and potential playoff scenarios depend on win-loss record through November 2026
- Historical precedent shows FCS programs rarely win Power Conference championships, though occasional upsets occur with exceptional seasons

Contracts:
- Will Hawai'i win the College Football Mountain West Championship?: Hawai'i — 15¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 59%)
- Will Air Force win the College Football Mountain West Championship?: Air Force — 14¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 21%)
- Will New Mexico win the College Football Mountain West Championship?: New Mexico — 22¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%)
- Will North Dakota St. win the College Football Mountain West Championship?: North Dakota St. — 22¢ Kalshi $351 (weight 5%)
- Will UNLV win the College Football Mountain West Championship?: UNLV — 27¢ Kalshi $88 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-28T11:20:53.754Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafmwc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20North%20Dakota%20St.%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20Mountain%20West%20Championship
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev