13% — Will San Diego St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship
Kalshi 13% · 7 contracts · $913 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 15:19:10 UTC

Why this matters:
San Diego State has a 13% implied probability of winning the Pac-12 championship this season, based on betting contracts. This reflects market assessment of the Aztecs' ability to compete in a conference that now includes programs like Boise State, Fresno State, and Oregon State following recent realignment. The probability is influenced by San Diego State's roster strength, conference competition level, and remaining schedule. Key uncertainties include how the team performs in conference play over the coming weeks and how injuries or unexpected roster changes affect their championship prospects. The resolution depends on the actual Pac-12 tournament results in December 2026, which will definitively determine whether San Diego State advances to and wins the championship game.

Key factors:
- San Diego State's win-loss record and strength of schedule through November will directly indicate playoff contention likelihood
- Boise State trading at 46¢ suggests it is the market favorite, meaning San Diego State faces significant competition from at least one well-regarded opponent
- Contract volume for San Diego State is very low ($18 in 24h), indicating limited trader interest and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- The Pac-12 field appears competitive, with four teams priced between 9-15¢, suggesting no clear favorites outside Boise State
- Conference tournament performance in early December will be the final determinant of championship eligibility

Contracts:
- Will Oregon St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Oregon St. — 6¢ Kalshi $805 (weight 88%)
- Will Boise St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Boise St. — 46¢ Kalshi $88 (weight 10%)
- Will Washington St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Washington St. — 4¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 2%)
- Will Colorado St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Colorado St. — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Fresno St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Fresno St. — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will San Diego St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: San Diego St. — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Texas St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Texas St. — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-22T14:20:51.372Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafpac12
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20San%20Diego%20St.%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20Pac-12%20Championship
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev