14% — Will San Diego St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship
Kalshi 14% · 6 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 08:02:33 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 50% probability that San Diego State will win the 2026 College Football Pac-12 Championship. The market reflects moderate confidence in the Aztecs' ability to compete for the conference title, suggesting they are viewed as roughly equal contenders with other programs. Factors supporting this level include San Diego State's roster composition, recruiting trajectory, and recent competitive performance, while headwinds might include depth at key positions, schedule strength, and competition from established Pac-12 programs. The probability will likely shift as the 2026 football season approaches and preseason evaluations emerge, with key data points being spring game performance, summer training reports, and preseason polls that provide concrete assessments of team strength relative to conference peers.

Key factors:
- San Diego State's roster talent level and transfer portal acquisitions relative to other Pac-12 contenders
- Quarterback stability and offensive line composition entering the 2026 season
- Strength of schedule and distribution of challenging matchups throughout the conference slate
- Historical consistency of San Diego State's coaching staff and program trajectory in conference play
- Injury status of key defensive starters and defensive line depth compared to conference rivals

Contracts:
- Will Washington St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Washington St. — 7¢ Kalshi $748 (weight 58%)
- Will Texas St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Texas St. — 12¢ Kalshi $544 (weight 42%)
- Will Boise St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Boise St. — 33¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%)
- Will Fresno St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Fresno St. — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will San Diego St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: San Diego St. — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Utah St. win the College Football Pac-12 Championship?: Utah St. — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:48.940Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafpac12
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20San%20Diego%20St.%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20Pac-12%20Championship
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev