13% — Will Colorado St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game
Kalshi 13% · 4 contracts · $46 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 07:08:37 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects Colorado State's estimated chance of reaching the Pac-12 Championship Game during the 2026 college football season. The 15% valuation suggests market participants view the Rams as an underdog compared to stronger conference contenders like Boise State (34%) and San Diego State (21%). Colorado State's probability depends primarily on regular-season performance, conference strength relative to peers, and injury developments throughout the fall. The most significant resolution catalyst will be the outcome of conference games beginning in late August through November, with the championship game typically held in early December. Currently, the lack of recent trading volume indicates limited immediate attention, though odds could shift substantially as preseason assessments emerge and actual games begin.

Key factors:
- Colorado State's 2025 season record and returning talent depth versus Pac-12 rivals entering the 2026 season
- Strength of schedule in conference play, particularly matchups against Boise State, San Diego State, and other top-tier Pac-12 teams
- Head-to-head win-loss performance in divisional games that directly determine playoff qualification standings
- Injury status of key offensive and defensive players throughout the regular season, particularly at quarterback and defensive line
- Conference's overall competitiveness and whether two-loss records are sufficient to qualify for the championship game versus typical championship-winning records

Contracts:
- Will Texas St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game?: Texas St. — 17¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 83%)
- Will San Diego St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game?: San Diego St. — 12¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 11%)
- Will Fresno St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game?: Fresno St. — 17¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 6%)
- Will Washington St. qualify for the College Football Pac-12 Championship Game?: Washington St. — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.786Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafpac12qual
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Colorado%20St.%20qualify%20for%20the%20College%20Football%20Pac-12%20Championship%20Game
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev