37% — Will Ohio St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs
Kalshi 37% · 20 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:25:55 UTC

Why this matters:
This 26% probability reflects the likelihood that Ohio State football will secure one of the four spots in the College Football Playoff this season. The rating appears conservative given Ohio State's historical strength and resources, likely reflecting uncertainty about the team's specific roster composition, coaching adjustments, and the competitive quality of the Big Ten conference in 2026. The primary driver of this probability will be the team's performance during the regular season, particularly in high-profile matchups and the conference championship. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the completion of the regular season (typically November-December 2026) and the subsequent playoff selection announcement, which will definitively determine whether Ohio State finished among the nation's top four teams.

Key factors:
- Ohio State's win-loss record and strength of schedule relative to other Power Four conferences through the 2026 regular season
- Head-to-head performance against top-ranked opponents, especially within the Big Ten, which will significantly influence playoff committee rankings
- Conference championship outcomes and whether Ohio State wins or loses the Big Ten title game in December 2026
- Injury status of key players and coaching staff continuity heading into and through the season
- Relative performance of other potential playoff contenders, as selection is comparative rather than absolute

Contracts:
- Will Penn St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Penn St. — 26¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 40%)
- Will South Carolina qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: South Carolina — 8¢ Kalshi $720 (weight 27%)
- Will Texas A&M qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Texas A&M — 33¢ Kalshi $239 (weight 9%)
- Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Oklahoma — 39¢ Kalshi $212 (weight 8%)
- Will California qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: California — 5¢ Kalshi $120 (weight 5%)
- Will USC qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: USC — 30¢ Kalshi $104 (weight 4%)
- Will Washington qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Washington — 20¢ Kalshi $79 (weight 3%)
- Will Auburn qualify for the College Football Playoffs?: Auburn — 8¢ Kalshi $29 (weight 1%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T00:20:49.515Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafplayoff
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ohio%20St.%20qualify%20for%20the%20College%20Football%20Playoffs
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev