13% — Will Miami (FL) qualify for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals in the 2026-27 season Kalshi 13% · 15 contracts · $724 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 08:34:09 UTC Why this matters: This probability indicates that Miami has roughly a two-in-three chance of reaching the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals in the 2026-27 season. The current 68% assessment reflects Miami's historical program strength and recent recruiting momentum, balanced against the competitive depth of the ACC and the difficulty of maintaining top-tier performance through a full college football season. The primary driver of this probability would be Miami's performance during the 2026 regular season, particularly results against conference rivals and non-conference opponents that test strength of schedule. The key catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the completion of the regular season in November-December 2026, when selection committees evaluate final standings, strength of schedule, and head-to-head records to determine the twelve playoff qualifiers. Miami's exact playoff seeding and entry point would depend on whether they finish as a conference champion or at-large selection. Key factors: - Miami's win-loss record and conference standing through the 2026 regular season, which directly determines playoff eligibility - Strength of schedule metrics, including quality wins against ranked opponents and the competitiveness of the ACC conference in 2026 - Head-to-head results in November matchups against peer-level competitors that selection committees use for tiebreaker evaluation - Injury status and roster development of key players through training camp and mid-season, affecting team performance trajectory - Changes to playoff selection criteria or expansion that could alter the threshold for reaching quarterfinal round qualification Contracts: - Will SMU qualify for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals in the 2026-27 season?: SMU — 4¢ Kalshi $691 (weight 96%) - Will Texas qualify for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals in the 2026-27 season?: Texas — 20¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 4%) - Will Oregon qualify for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals in the 2026-27 season?: Oregon — 37¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - Will Alabama qualify for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals in the 2026-27 season?: Alabama — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Auburn qualify for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals in the 2026-27 season?: Auburn — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will BYU qualify for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals in the 2026-27 season?: BYU — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will California qualify for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals in the 2026-27 season?: California — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Clemson qualify for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals in the 2026-27 season?: Clemson — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 7 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-27T08:20:50.330Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafqf Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Miami%20(FL)%20qualify%20for%20the%20College%20Football%20Playoff%20Quarterfinals%20in%20the%202026-27%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev