7% — Will James Madison win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Kalshi 7% · 10 contracts · $298 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 16:17:04 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that James Madison has an 8% chance of winning the Sun Belt Conference championship in college football. The low probability suggests traders view James Madison as a long-shot contender compared to teams like Marshall (currently at 10%), indicating concerns about the team's competitive strength within the conference this season. The championship will be determined by conference play performance through the regular season and any subsequent conference tournament, with the outcome depending on James Madison's win-loss record relative to other Sun Belt teams. Actual resolution will occur when the conference champion is officially crowned, likely in late November or early December following the conclusion of conference competition.

Key factors:
- James Madison's current trading price (18¢) is meaningfully higher than the aggregated 8% probability, suggesting potential market disagreement or pricing discrepancies across venues
- Marshall trades at 5¢ despite higher aggregated probability (10%), indicating concentrated skepticism about Marshall's championship chances despite being favored
- Trading volume for James Madison is minimal ($10 24h volume), suggesting thin liquidity and potentially unreliable price signals compared to higher-volume contracts like Marshall ($662 24h volume)
- The Sun Belt championship outcome depends directly on James Madison's conference win-loss record relative to competitors through the regular season schedule
- Conference standings and head-to-head results between James Madison and other contenders will be the primary determinant of final positioning

Contracts:
- Will Appalachian St. win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Appalachian St. — 5¢ Kalshi $110 (weight 37%)
- Will Troy win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Troy — 3¢ Kalshi $104 (weight 35%)
- Will Marshall win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Marshall — 4¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 13%)
- Will James Madison win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: James Madison — 28¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 10%)
- Will Louisiana Tech win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Louisiana Tech — 6¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 3%)
- Will South Alabama win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: South Alabama — 3¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 2%)
- Will Arkansas St. win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Arkansas St. — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Georgia Southern win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Georgia Southern — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-22T15:20:49.338Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafsbelt
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20James%20Madison%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20Sun%20Belt%20Championship
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev