12% — Will James Madison win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Kalshi 12% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 06:48:53 UTC

Why this matters:
This 8% probability reflects the implied likelihood that James Madison University wins the Sun Belt Conference football championship in the 2026 season. The low odds suggest market participants view Madison as a significant underdog relative to stronger programs in the conference. The probability would be driven primarily by Madison's roster strength and offseason personnel changes compared to established competitors, along with early-season performance indicators. The actual championship game, typically held in December, will serve as the decisive event. Additional clarity should emerge during preseason assessments in August and through the opening weeks of the season, when actual team performance becomes observable.

Key factors:
- James Madison's historical performance and recent trajectory in FBS/Bowl Subdivision competition
- Strength and depth of competing Sun Belt programs in 2026, particularly traditional powers
- Quality of Madison's quarterback play and offensive personnel entering the season
- Head coach stability and coaching staff composition relative to conference rivals
- Preseason rankings and expert consensus projections released in summer 2026

Contracts:
- Will Appalachian St. win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Appalachian St. — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Arkansas St. win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Arkansas St. — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will James Madison win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: James Madison — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Louisiana win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Louisiana — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Marshall win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Marshall — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Old Dominion win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Old Dominion — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will South Alabama win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: South Alabama — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Troy win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Troy — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:51.698Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafsbelt
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20James%20Madison%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20Sun%20Belt%20Championship
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev