16% — Will Old Dominion qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game Kalshi 16% · 11 contracts · $112 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 07:08:35 UTC Why this matters: This 7% probability indicates a low likelihood that Old Dominion will reach the Sun Belt Conference championship game this season. The market is pricing in Old Dominion as a long-shot candidate, facing stiff competition from programs like James Madison (13%), Louisiana (6%), Arkansas State (6%), and Troy (5%). Old Dominion's path to the championship game depends primarily on their regular season win-loss record and performance in conference play, as typically only the top teams qualify. The main factors moving this probability would be their actual on-field performance throughout the 2026 college football season and head-to-head results against other contenders. The championship game itself will ultimately resolve this contract once the regular season concludes and conference standings are finalized, likely in November or early December 2026. Key factors: - Old Dominion's win-loss record during the 2026 regular season, with conference games being weighted most heavily in championship qualification - Head-to-head results against other top Sun Belt contenders, particularly James Madison, Louisiana, Arkansas State, and Troy - The relative strength of schedule Old Dominion faces compared to other Sun Belt programs competing for the two championship game spots - Potential tiebreakers or conference tie-breaking procedures if multiple teams finish with identical conference records - Coaching staff decisions and roster composition entering the 2026 season that determine team competitiveness Contracts: - Will Troy qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Troy — 16¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 31%) - Will Old Dominion qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Old Dominion — 12¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 21%) - Will James Madison qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: James Madison — 51¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 16%) - Will Arkansas St. qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Arkansas St. — 13¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 14%) - Will Louisiana Tech qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Louisiana Tech — 20¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 9%) - Will Louisiana qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Louisiana — 20¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 5%) - Will South Alabama qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: South Alabama — 12¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 4%) - Will Appalachian St. qualify for the College Football Sun Belt Championship Game?: Appalachian St. — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T06:20:51.043Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafsbeltqual Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Old%20Dominion%20qualify%20for%20the%20College%20Football%20Sun%20Belt%20Championship%20Game Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev