11% — Will Vanderbilt win the College Football SEC Championship Kalshi 11% · 8 contracts · $168 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 08:04:43 UTC Why this matters: This probability indicates that markets assess Vanderbilt has a 10% chance of winning the SEC Championship in 2026. Vanderbilt would need to perform significantly better than their recent historical performance, as they have not won an SEC title since 1982 and typically finish near the bottom of the conference. The current estimate reflects their roster quality, coaching staff, and strength-of-schedule relative to established powerhouses like Texas, Georgia, and Alabama. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the actual 2026 college football season, with early-season performance against conference opponents in September and October providing the clearest signal of championship viability. Additionally, any significant changes to their roster through recruiting or transfers could shift this probability before the season begins. Key factors: - Vanderbilt has finished in the SEC's bottom tier in most recent seasons, with limited recent championship infrastructure compared to conference competitors - Texas trades at 11% for the national championship while Vanderbilt trades at 10% for just the SEC championship, suggesting a substantial talent gap between them - The 2026 football season has not yet begun, meaning this probability is based entirely on pre-season roster evaluation and coaching staff assessments - Conference expansion and playoff format changes may affect the competitive landscape and path to championship for all SEC teams - Historical track record shows SEC championships typically go to programs with established recruiting pipelines and sustained winning records Contracts: - Will LSU win the College Football SEC Championship?: LSU — 9¢ Kalshi $128 (weight 76%) - Will Alabama win the College Football SEC Championship?: Alabama — 10¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 22%) - Will Georgia win the College Football SEC Championship?: Georgia — 21¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 1%) - Will Texas win the College Football SEC Championship?: Texas — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tennessee win the College Football SEC Championship?: Tennessee — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ole Miss win the College Football SEC Championship?: Ole Miss — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Texas A&M win the College Football SEC Championship?: Texas A&M — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Oklahoma win the College Football SEC Championship?: Oklahoma — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:49.860Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafsec Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Vanderbilt%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20SEC%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev