11% — Will Vanderbilt win the College Football SEC Championship Kalshi 11% · 8 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 14:24:05 UTC Why this matters: This 10% probability reflects market expectations that Vanderbilt will win the SEC Championship during the 2026 college football season. The relatively low odds align with Vanderbilt's historical position as a mid-tier SEC program, competing against stronger regional rivals like Texas A&M (9¢), Ole Miss (5¢), and others with more recent championship pedigree. The probability would likely shift based on Vanderbilt's performance during the regular season, particularly their strength of schedule and win-loss record through October and November. The SEC Championship Game, typically held in early December, represents the key event that will definitively resolve this contract. Market pricing suggests investors view multiple other programs as more credible contenders, with significant fragmentation across competing teams indicating genuine uncertainty about the favorite. Key factors: - Vanderbilt's 2026 regular season win-loss record against conference opponents compared to historical performance - Strength and composition of Vanderbilt's non-conference schedule and results through October - Performance of competing SEC programs, particularly those currently priced higher (Texas A&M at 9¢, Ole Miss at 5¢) - Vanderbilt's quarterback performance, injury status of key offensive/defensive personnel, and depth chart changes - Head-to-head matchups against other SEC contenders in November, which typically determine championship game qualification Contracts: - Will Georgia win the College Football SEC Championship?: Georgia — 28¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 46%) - Will Oklahoma win the College Football SEC Championship?: Oklahoma — 7¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 42%) - Will Tennessee win the College Football SEC Championship?: Tennessee — 3¢ Kalshi $351 (weight 6%) - Will Alabama win the College Football SEC Championship?: Alabama — 9¢ Kalshi $206 (weight 4%) - Will Texas win the College Football SEC Championship?: Texas — 21¢ Kalshi $112 (weight 2%) - Will Texas A&M win the College Football SEC Championship?: Texas A&M — 8¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 0%) - Will LSU win the College Football SEC Championship?: LSU — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ole Miss win the College Football SEC Championship?: Ole Miss — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T14:20:51.634Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafsec Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Vanderbilt%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20SEC%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev