23% — Will the Oklahoma college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season Kalshi 23% · 20 contracts · $491 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:17 UTC Why this matters: This 15% probability indicates traders assess a one-in-six-or-seven chance Oklahoma finishes among the top three teams in SEC standings during the 2026 regular season. Oklahoma joined the SEC in 2024 and faces established powerhouses in conference play. The low probability reflects the competitive depth of the league, where programs like Georgia, Texas, and Alabama typically contend for top positions. The 2026 regular season itself—running from late August through late November—will directly determine final conference standings. Key performance drivers include Oklahoma's roster development in their third SEC season, injury outcomes during the season, and head-to-head results against ranked conference opponents. The resolution occurs after the regular season concludes, when final conference standings become official. Key factors: - Oklahoma finished 6th in SEC standings in 2025; improvement to top-3 requires significant performance gains or favorable schedule outcomes - Georgia and Texas are priced at 20¢ each compared to Oklahoma's 5¢, suggesting Oklahoma faces steeper odds than other recent SEC additions - SEC conference play typically includes multiple top-25 matchups; Oklahoma's non-conference schedule and strength of late-season opponents will influence final positioning - Coaching stability and quarterback performance at Oklahoma will directly impact win-loss record and conference standing - The 2026 regular season concludes in late November, at which point final SEC standings determine whether the condition is met or unmet Contracts: - Will Georgia finish in the top 5 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 college football regular season?: Georgia — 69¢ Kalshi $219 (weight 45%) - Will the Georgia college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season?: Georgia — 45¢ Kalshi $112 (weight 23%) - Will Alabama finish in the top 4 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 college football regular season?: Alabama — 35¢ Kalshi $70 (weight 14%) - Will the Alabama college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season?: Alabama — 21¢ Kalshi $51 (weight 10%) - Will LSU finish in the top 4 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 college football regular season?: LSU — 38¢ Kalshi $27 (weight 6%) - Will the LSU college football team finish in the top 3 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 regular season?: LSU — 21¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 1%) - Will Oklahoma finish in the top 4 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 college football regular season?: Oklahoma — 30¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%) - Will Alabama finish in the top 5 in the Southeastern Conference in the 2026 college football regular season?: Alabama — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:45.844Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafsecregtop Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Oklahoma%20college%20football%20team%20finish%20in%20the%20top%203%20in%20the%20Southeastern%20Conference%20in%20the%202026%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev