95% — Will at least 3 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season Leader: 1+ team at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 7 contracts · $253 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 06:41:42 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This market assesses the likelihood that at least three SEC teams will finish the 2026 regular season with 10 or more wins. The 97% probability on the 1+ team outcome reflects high confidence that at least one SEC program will reach double-digit wins, while the 52% price on the 3+ teams outcome suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether that success will be distributed across multiple programs. The current SEC competitiveness, strength of schedule variation across conference members, and injury dynamics throughout the season are primary drivers. The resolution will be determined by final regular-season records in late November 2026, making the strength of individual team rosters and conference parity the key factors to monitor. The market's structure shows traders view one dominant team as likely, but three or more teams reaching 10 wins as a less certain outcome. Key factors: - SEC team roster quality and transfer portal acquisitions relative to 2025 performance levels - Strength of schedule variation—whether typical contenders face significantly easier nonconference slates - Historical SEC parity trends: over the past five seasons, how many SEC teams typically exceed 10 wins annually - Injury rates among projected SEC contenders during the regular season, particularly at quarterback and offensive line positions - Competitive balance within the conference itself—whether wins are concentrated in 2-3 programs or distributed across 4+ teams Contracts: - Will at least 1 team in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 1+ team — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will at least 2 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 2+ teams — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will at least 3 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 3+ teams — 55¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 1%) - Will at least 8 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 8+ teams — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will at least 7 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 7+ teams — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will at least 4 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 4+ teams — 6¢ Kalshi $250 (weight 99%) - Will at least 5 teams in the Southeastern Conference win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 5+ teams — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T06:20:49.761Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafsecwins Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20at%20least%203%20teams%20in%20the%20Southeastern%20Conference%20win%20at%20least%2010%20games%20in%20the%202026%20college%20football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev