8% — Will Ole Miss be selected as the #5 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff Kalshi 8% · 13 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 10:37:05 UTC Why this matters: This contract predicts whether Ole Miss will receive the #5 seed in the College Football Playoff for the 2026-27 season, currently priced at 3% probability. At this low level, the market reflects skepticism that Ole Miss will finish the regular season with a strong enough record and resume to claim one of the top-five spots. The main factors influencing this probability are Ole Miss's performance during the 2026 regular season (schedule difficulty, win-loss record, and head-to-head results) and how competitive the broader pool of potential #5 seeds becomes. The resolution will occur when the College Football Playoff selection committee announces the four semifinalists and #5 seed in early December 2026 following the regular season's conclusion. Markets for competing schools like Oklahoma and Texas A&M trade at similar low probabilities, suggesting the #5 seed is expected to come from a much smaller set of traditional powerhouses or unexpected breakout teams. Key factors: - Ole Miss's regular season record through November 2026, with particular attention to wins against ranked opponents and strength of schedule - Conference performance and standings position, particularly in the SEC where Ole Miss competes - Comparative strength of other potential #5-seed contenders based on their regular season records and head-to-head results - Selection committee's historical bias toward conference champions and teams from Power Four conferences - Whether Ole Miss experiences unexpected injuries to key players or coaching changes that would significantly alter playoff prospects Contracts: - Will Miami (FL) be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Miami (FL) — 6¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 61%) - Will Texas be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Texas — 8¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 34%) - Will Notre Dame be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Notre Dame — 12¢ Kalshi $193 (weight 3%) - Will Oregon be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Oregon — 13¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 2%) - Will Alabama be selected as the #4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Alabama — 11¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 0%) - Will Texas Tech be selected as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Texas Tech — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ole Miss be selected as the #12 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Ole Miss — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Alabama be selected as the #12 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Alabama — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T09:20:50.748Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafseed Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ole%20Miss%20be%20selected%20as%20the%20%235%20seed%20in%20the%202026-27%20College%20Football%20Playoff Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev