44% — Will Ohio St. be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Kalshi 44% · 20 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 16:17:16 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Ohio State will enter the College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings as a top 10 team. The 72% confidence level sits between more pessimistic preseason assessments and the higher certainty reflected in Week 2 projections (91¢), suggesting moderate uncertainty about the Buckeyes' opening ranking. Key drivers include Ohio State's roster composition, offseason roster changes, and how preseason voters typically rank defending national powers. The primary resolution event will be the release of the official AP Poll rankings following the first week of the 2026 college football season. Preseason injury reports and any significant coaching changes could push expectations higher or lower before that release.

Key factors:
- Ohio State's performance trajectory in recent seasons and returning talent relative to other top programs
- Preseason voter sentiment and historical bias toward established powerhouses in opening rankings
- Roster changes through transfer portal and recruitment relative to other elite programs competing for top 10 spots
- The timing of the AP Poll release relative to Week 1 games and how much evidence of performance voters will have
- Injuries or unexpected departures of key players reported before the Week 1 rankings are finalized

Contracts:
- Will Oregon be a top 5 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: Oregon — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will Texas Tech be a top 5 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: Texas Tech — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will Ohio St. be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: Ohio St. — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will Notre Dame be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: Notre Dame — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will Texas be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: Texas — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will Indiana be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: Indiana — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will Miami (FL) be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: Miami (FL) — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will Texas Tech be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: Texas Tech — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-22T15:20:50.513Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaaftopaprank
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ohio%20St.%20be%20a%20top%2010%20ranked%20team%20on%20College%20Football%20AP%20Poll%20Week%201%20rankings
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev