56% — Will Ohio St. be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Kalshi 56% · 19 contracts · $28 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 08:05:55 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the chance that Ohio State finishes among the top 10 teams in the initial College Football AP Poll for the 2026 season. The 58% estimate sits near even odds, suggesting substantial uncertainty about the Buckeyes' standing heading into the season. Ohio State's ranking will depend primarily on preseason expectations around returning talent, coaching stability, and strength of schedule. The related market for Ohio State being ranked #1 shows lower probability at 44%, indicating most forecasters expect them to be strong but not the consensus top team. Final preseason rankings typically emerge in July-August, which would significantly clarify the market. Historical performance, recruiting class strength, and any roster changes from transfers or departures will heavily influence how voters calibrate Ohio State's week-one placement relative to other traditional powerhouses.

Key factors:
- Ohio State's returning quarterback and offensive skill position talent relative to competing programs
- Defection or addition of key players through transfer portal activity between now and preseason rankings release
- Preseason expectation-setting by major sports media outlets and coaching polls in July-August
- Strength of Ohio State's non-conference schedule, which impacts voting perception of team quality
- Head coaching continuity and any significant staff changes that signal program direction

Contracts:
- Will Oregon be a top 3 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Oregon — 29¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 52%)
- Will Oklahoma be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Oklahoma — 12¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 21%)
- Will Georgia be a top 3 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Georgia — 37¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 18%)
- Will Ole Miss be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Ole Miss — 32¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 9%)
- Will Alabama be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Alabama — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will BYU be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: BYU — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Clemson be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Clemson — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Indiana be a top 10 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Indiana — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:51.273Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "56% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaaftopaprank
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ohio%20St.%20be%20a%20top%2010%20ranked%20team%20on%20College%20Football%20AP%20Poll%20Week%201%20rankings
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev