20% — Will Indiana be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff Kalshi 20% · 16 contracts · $859 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:17 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects market assessment that Indiana has a 17% chance of earning a top-four seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff. The market currently prices Indiana below several peer programs, suggesting skepticism about the program's competitive trajectory or strength of schedule. Key drivers include Indiana's actual win-loss record, conference standing, and strength of schedule as the season unfolds. The 2026 college football season, which runs from September through December, will determine Indiana's final ranking relative to other contenders. The playoff selection decision itself occurs in early December 2026 after the regular season concludes, making that the hard resolution point for this market. Market participants appear to be factoring in Indiana's historical playoff accessibility relative to emerging contenders like Texas and Notre Dame. Key factors: - Indiana's actual regular season record and final conference standing as of early December 2026 - Quality of Indiana's non-conference schedule and overall strength of schedule compared to competing programs - Indiana's performance against ranked opponents and results in decisive conference games - The relative strength of the Big Ten conference in 2026 and how many teams from the conference earn top-four seeds - Injuries to key players or coaching changes that materially affect Indiana's competitiveness during the season Contracts: - Will Miami (FL) be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Miami (FL) — 19¢ Kalshi $500 (weight 58%) - Will Auburn be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Auburn — 10¢ Kalshi $250 (weight 29%) - Will Georgia be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Georgia — 26¢ Kalshi $54 (weight 6%) - Will Oregon be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Oregon — 25¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 6%) - Will Oklahoma be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Oklahoma — 5¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%) - Will Alabama be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Alabama — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Indiana be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: Indiana — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will LSU be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff?: LSU — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:48.165Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaaftopseed Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Indiana%20be%20selected%20as%20a%20top%204%20seed%20in%20the%202026-27%20College%20Football%20Playoff Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev