13% — Will Notre Dame go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season Kalshi 13% · 11 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 07:53:45 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the chance Notre Dame completes a full regular season without any losses in 2026. The 13% estimate sits between several peer programs, with Texas trading at 6% and Georgia at 13%, suggesting moderate skepticism about any team running the table. Undefeated seasons depend primarily on roster talent and depth relative to schedule strength—Notre Dame's spring recruiting outcomes and transfer portal additions will determine offensive firepower and defensive consistency. The season begins in late August 2026, making preseason performance in August scrimmages and early-season matchups the critical data points that will sharpen this probability significantly. Current trading volume is minimal, indicating limited market attention to this specific contract ahead of the season's start. Key factors: - Notre Dame's strength of schedule in 2026, particularly ranked non-conference opponents and conference slate difficulty - Quarterback performance and offensive line continuity from previous season - Defensive secondary depth and pass-rush capability relative to opponents' offensive firepower - Historical baseline: fewer than 10 FBS teams have gone undefeated in any season since 2000, with only three doing so in the last decade - Early-season performance against top-20 competition in August-September will provide direct evidence of team quality versus projection models Contracts: - Will Georgia go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Georgia — 15¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 74%) - Will Texas Tech go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Texas Tech — 24¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 23%) - Will Notre Dame go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Notre Dame — 33¢ Kalshi $142 (weight 2%) - Will Ohio St. go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Ohio St. — 8¢ Kalshi $52 (weight 1%) - Will Miami (FL) go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Miami (FL) — 15¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 0%) - Will Oregon go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Oregon — 11¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 0%) - Will Alabama go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Alabama — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Indiana go undefeated in the 2026 College Football regular season?: Indiana — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:49.033Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafundefeated Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Notre%20Dame%20go%20undefeated%20in%20the%202026%20College%20Football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev