28% — Will Texas Tech go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season Kalshi 28% · 20 contracts · $49 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 03:25:14 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents whether Texas Tech will win every home football game during the 2026 regular season. At 22%, the market suggests it's unlikely but not impossible. Home field advantage matters in college football, but Texas Tech must avoid losses to visiting opponents over a full season—typically 6-7 games. The probability reflects the team's recent competitiveness, conference strength, and historical consistency at home. Factors that could shift this include coaching staff changes, roster depth, opponent scheduling difficulty, and early-season home game results. Resolution occurs in late November 2026 when the regular season concludes, with each home loss eliminating the possibility. Texas Tech's home undefeated streak would be notable but rarer than most individual rivalry upsets or conference tournament performances. Key factors: - Texas Tech's historical home win rate and record against conference opponents at Jones AT&T Stadium over recent seasons - 2026 home schedule composition—strength of visiting opponents and clustering of ranked teams in Lubbock games - Roster continuity and quarterback stability heading into 2026, affecting both offensive consistency and defensive performance - Comparison to peer programs: Georgia trades at 34¢ while most other Power/mid-major programs trade below 15¢, suggesting relative confidence in Texas Tech - Early home game outcomes (September-October 2026) will provide first concrete data to update from current 22% baseline Contracts: - Will Texas Tech go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Texas Tech — 47¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 72%) - Will Oklahoma go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Oklahoma — 5¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 25%) - Will Notre Dame go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Notre Dame — 33¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 3%) - Will Ohio St. go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Ohio St. — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Texas go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Texas — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Indiana go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Indiana — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Oregon go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Oregon — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Georgia go undefeated at home in the 2026 college football regular season?: Georgia — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-22T02:20:53.096Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafundefeatedhome Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Texas%20Tech%20go%20undefeated%20at%20home%20in%20the%202026%20college%20football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev