40% — Will Ohio St. win at least 12 games this season
Kalshi 40% · 14 contracts · $129 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:33:25 UTC

Why this matters:
The 47% probability reflects a near-coin-flip assessment of whether Ohio State will achieve at least 12 wins during the 2026 college football season. This level suggests meaningful uncertainty about the team's performance trajectory. The probability is likely influenced by Ohio State's preseason roster composition, strength of schedule, and recent historical performance patterns. Key variables affecting this outcome include injury status to key players heading into the season, performance in non-conference games that establish baseline competitiveness, and results in Big Ten competition. The most significant near-term catalyst would be the team's performance through the first 4-5 games of the season, which would clarify actual competitive level versus preseason expectations and inform whether reaching 12 wins remains plausible or has become substantially more difficult.

Key factors:
- Ohio State's win-loss record through Week 5 of the season, which will indicate actual performance against stated competition level
- Cumulative injuries to offensive or defensive starters, as depth impacts ability to sustain 12-win pace across full schedule
- Performance in marquee non-conference games or early Big Ten matchups that test whether preseason projections are tracking
- Strength of schedule composition—specific opponents faced in months 2-3 of season that determine win-probability math for 12-win threshold
- Historical Ohio State program baseline (typical win totals under current coaching regime) versus market's implicit expectations

Contracts:
- Will Texas win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins — 45¢ Kalshi $51 (weight 39%)
- Will Notre Dame win at least 12 games this season?: 12 wins — 28¢ Kalshi $32 (weight 25%)
- Will Penn St. win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins — 41¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 17%)
- Will Oklahoma St. win at least 7 games this season?: 7+ wins — 22¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 6%)
- Will Baylor win at least 7 games this season?: 7+ wins — 35¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 5%)
- Will Ole Miss win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins — 25¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 5%)
- Will Texas Tech win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins — 51¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 3%)
- Will Alabama win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.138Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafwins
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ohio%20St.%20win%20at%20least%2012%20games%20this%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev