59% — Will Ohio St. win at least 12 games this season
Kalshi 59% · 20 contracts · $18K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 00:23:58 UTC

Why this matters:
A 43% probability means the market estimates Ohio State has slightly better than even odds of winning at least 12 games this season. This reflects uncertainty about whether the team can sustain performance through a full Big Ten schedule and potential bowl play. The probability appears influenced by the team's roster composition, strength of schedule, and performance in early-season games against ranked opponents. Key uncertainty centers on quarterback consistency, defensive depth, and how Ohio State performs in games against elite conference rivals like Texas, Penn State, and Michigan—matchups scheduled through October and November that will substantially clarify playoff and bowl eligibility prospects. The market's 43% reading sits lower than some peer programs, suggesting bettors see moderate obstacles to reaching 12 wins despite Ohio State's traditional resources and recruiting advantages.

Key factors:
- Actual win-loss record through games completed versus games remaining on the schedule
- Performance differential against top-25 ranked opponents compared to historical Ohio State benchmarks
- Quarterback injury status and backup readiness, which directly impacts game outcomes
- Head-to-head results in Big Ten conference play, particularly against Texas, Penn State, and Michigan
- Bowl game qualification status and opponent strength, which determines whether 12 wins is mathematically achievable

Contracts:
- Will Texas Tech win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins — 84¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 18%)
- Will Nebraska win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins — 23¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 15%)
- Will Oklahoma St. win at least 8 games this season?: 8+ wins — 42¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%)
- Will USC win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins — 44¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%)
- Will LSU win at least 12 games this season?: 12 wins — 8¢ Kalshi $850 (weight 5%)
- Will Kansas St. win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins — 8¢ Kalshi $839 (weight 5%)
- Will Notre Dame win at least 12 games this season?: 12 wins — 29¢ Kalshi $838 (weight 5%)
- Will Oklahoma St. win at least 6 games this season?: 6+ wins — 67¢ Kalshi $797 (weight 4%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:21:00.555Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "59% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafwins
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ohio%20St.%20win%20at%20least%2012%20games%20this%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev