21% — Will Duke be #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Kalshi 21% · 8 contracts · $81 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:25:54 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the estimated chance that Duke University will be ranked #1 in the AP Poll's first weekly college basketball rankings of the 2026-27 season. At 23%, Duke is considered a competitive but not favored contender for the top ranking. The preseason outlook depends primarily on how Duke's roster development progresses through spring and summer training, roster retention, and transfer portal activity relative to other traditional powerhouses. The AP Poll Week 1 rankings will be released in late October 2026 following the start of the college basketball season, which represents the key moment when this prediction resolves. Duke's path to #1 requires strong offseason performance metrics and favorable comparisons to other elite programs entering the season.

Key factors:
- Duke's roster composition after transfer portal activity closes and spring recruitment concludes, compared to traditional basketball powerhouses
- Quality and experience level of Duke's returning players, particularly at guard and forward positions critical to elite-level play
- Preseason consensus ranking from major sports publications and expert polls, which typically align closely with Week 1 AP rankings
- Recruitment and commitment of elite high school prospects through June-July 2026, affecting perceived depth and talent
- Performance of competing programs like Florida, Kansas, and other traditional contenders in the same evaluation period

Contracts:
- Will Michigan be the #2 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Michigan — 14¢ Kalshi $70 (weight 87%)
- Will Duke be #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Duke — 17¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 7%)
- Will Florida be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Florida — 74¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 4%)
- Will Duke be the #2 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Duke — 37¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 3%)
- Will Illinois be the #2 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Illinois — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UConn be the #2 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: UConn — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Florida be the #2 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Florida — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Illinois be #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Illinois — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T00:20:50.375Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaambaprank
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Duke%20be%20%231%20ranked%20team%20on%20Men's%20College%20Basketball%20AP%20Poll%20Week%201%20rankings
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev