13% — Will Duke be #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings Kalshi 13% · 18 contracts · $236 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 15:19:11 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the chance Duke enters the 2026-27 college basketball season ranked first in the AP Poll's Week 1 preseason rankings. At 20%, markets suggest Duke is considered competitive but not favored for the top spot. The current assessment balances Duke's program strength and recent recruiting against uncertainty about roster construction and how voters will weight returning talent versus incoming players across all top programs. The Week 1 AP Poll, typically released in late October or early November before the season begins, will definitively resolve this outcome. Voter preferences for different programs and their interpretation of summer transfer portal activity will substantially influence where Duke lands relative to other blue-blood programs like Florida and Illinois, which show contract prices between 21-27 cents. Key factors: - Duke's roster composition for 2026-27, including any significant portal departures or high-impact transfers - Comparative strength of returning rosters at traditional blue bloods and other programs that might compete for #1 ranking - AP Poll voters' preseason preferences and historical biases toward certain programs or coaching tenures - Performance and roster decisions by competitor programs like Florida, Illinois, and other traditional powerhouses - Official release date and methodology of the Week 1 AP Poll, typically determined in early fall 2026 Contracts: - Will Illinois be the #3 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Illinois — 7¢ Kalshi $153 (weight 65%) - Will Duke be the #2 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Duke — 44¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 35%) - Will Duke be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 8 rankings?: Duke — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Arizona be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 8 rankings?: Arizona — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Michigan be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 8 rankings?: Michigan — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Arkansas be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 8 rankings?: Arkansas — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Duke be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings?: Duke — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Louisville be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings?: Louisville — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-22T14:20:51.224Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaambaprank Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Duke%20be%20%231%20ranked%20team%20on%20Men's%20College%20Basketball%20AP%20Poll%20Week%201%20rankings Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev