11% — Will Illinois be the Big Ten tournament champions Kalshi 11% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 12:59:57 UTC Why this matters: Illinois is currently priced at 47% to win the Big Ten tournament, placing it as a competitive contender in the field. This probability reflects Illinois's position as a mid-tier favorite among Big Ten schools, trailing Nebraska (97¢) but ahead of USC (29¢). The pricing would likely shift based on team performance during the regular season, including win-loss records, strength of schedule results, and any roster changes or injuries affecting key players. The Big Ten tournament itself, typically held in March, represents the primary resolution event. Illinois's tournament odds depend on securing a favorable seeding through regular-season play and then navigating the tournament bracket successfully. Current market liquidity is relatively modest, with limited 24-hour volume, suggesting prices may adjust as the tournament approaches and more information becomes available about team form and matchup dynamics. Key factors: - Illinois's regular-season record and final Big Ten standing, which directly determines tournament seeding and bracket position - Comparative strength of Big Ten competitors, particularly Nebraska's continued performance relative to Illinois throughout the season - Injury status and roster stability of Illinois's key rotation players entering the tournament - The specific tournament bracket structure and potential matchup advantages or disadvantages Illinois may face - Recent head-to-head records and trends between Illinois and other tournament contenders Contracts: - Will Illinois be the Big Ten tournament champions?: Illinois — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Indiana be the Big Ten tournament champions?: Indiana — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Michigan St. be the Big Ten tournament champions?: Michigan St. — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Michigan be the Big Ten tournament champions?: Michigan — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Nebraska be the Big Ten tournament champions?: Nebraska — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Oregon be the Big Ten tournament champions?: Oregon — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Purdue be the Big Ten tournament champions?: Purdue — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will USC be the Big Ten tournament champions?: USC — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T11:20:59.317Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaambbig10 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Illinois%20be%20the%20Big%20Ten%20tournament%20champions Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev