36% — Will Houston be a top 10 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings
Kalshi 36% · 11 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 12:40:18 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 49% probability that Houston's basketball team will be ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll's Week 1 preseason rankings for the 2026-27 season. Houston's standing depends primarily on their offseason roster changes, injury status of key players, and how voters perceive their returning talent relative to other programs. The main driver of the current even-odds probability is uncertainty around player retention and transfer portal activity, which historically shapes preseason expectations. The AP Poll Week 1 rankings will be released in late October 2026, which is when this market resolves.

Key factors:
- Houston's roster composition following the offseason transfer portal and recruitment period
- Status of Houston's returning core players and any injury developments before preseason rankings
- Voter perception of Houston's recent tournament performance and program trajectory
- Competition level among peer programs vying for top-10 preseason positions
- Any coaching staff changes or program news affecting Houston's perceived 2026-27 potential

Contracts:
- Will Arizona be a top 10 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Arizona — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will Arkansas be a top 10 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Arkansas — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will UConn be a top 10 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: UConn — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will Duke be a top 10 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Duke — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will Florida be a top 10 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Florida — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will Gonzaga be a top 10 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Gonzaga — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will Houston be a top 10 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Houston — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will Illinois be a top 10 ranked team on College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 rankings?: Illinois — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T12:20:49.797Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaambtopaprank
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Houston%20be%20a%20top%2010%20ranked%20team%20on%20College%20Basketball%20AP%20Poll%20Week%201%20rankings
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev