13% — Will Texas win the College Softball D1 championship Kalshi 13% · 7 contracts · $22K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 21:13:03 UTC Why this matters: Texas is assigned a 15% probability of winning the College Softball D1 championship, meaning the market estimates roughly a 1-in-7 chance they claim the title. This places them in the middle tier of contenders, behind Arkansas (20%) and UCLA (17%) but ahead of Nebraska and Mississippi State. The probability reflects Texas's historical program strength balanced against competitive uncertainties inherent in single-elimination tournament play. The primary drivers of this probability are Texas's regular-season performance through May-June, their seeding and draw position in the NCAA tournament (typically announced in early June), and injury status of key players heading into postseason play. The NCAA Women's College World Series, held in June in Oklahoma City, will definitively settle this market as games proceed through the bracket. Key factors: - Texas's regular-season record and RPI ranking as of early June determine tournament seeding, which materially affects championship odds through bracket placement - Comparative strength of top-seeded programs—Arkansas, UCLA, Nebraska—relative to Texas's roster depth and pitcher availability - Historical tournament performance: whether Texas has demonstrated ability to win multiple elimination games in prior World Series appearances - NCAA tournament bracket composition and draw luck, which determines Texas's path to the championship and quality of opponents faced - Injury status of Texas's starting pitcher(s) and key position players heading into the June World Series Contracts: - Will Texas Tech win the College Softball D1 championship?: Texas Tech — 26¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 41%) - Will Tennessee win the College Softball D1 championship?: Tennessee — 9¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 15%) - Will Nebraska win the College Softball D1 championship?: Nebraska — 15¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 14%) - Will Texas win the College Softball D1 championship?: Texas — 15¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 12%) - Will Arkansas win the College Softball D1 championship?: Arkansas — 5¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 9%) - Will Alabama win the College Softball D1 championship?: Alabama — 17¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%) - Will Mississippi State win the College Softball D1 championship?: Mississippi State — 3¢ Kalshi $918 (weight 4%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.537Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaasoftball Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Texas%20win%20the%20College%20Softball%20D1%20championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev