97% — Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.1 million passengers carried in 2026 Leader: Above 3.15 million at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 7 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 23:48:27 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing a 94% probability that Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings will carry more than 3.1 million passengers in 2026, with diminishing confidence at higher thresholds (40% above 3.4 million). This reflects expectations that the company's fleet capacity and booking demand will support mid-range volumes typical for major cruise operators. The probability level hinges on two main factors: the company's ability to maintain operational capacity and occupancy rates amid broader cruise industry demand, and macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer travel spending through year-end. The outcome resolves when the company reports full-year 2026 passenger figures, typically disclosed in early 2027 earnings announcements. Current pricing suggests traders view headwinds as manageable but acknowledge material risk that actual volumes fall short of the threshold, particularly given the descending probability curve across higher passenger-count brackets. Key factors: - Norwegian Cruise Line's reported fleet capacity and available sailing days in 2026, which directly constrain maximum passenger throughput - Historical occupancy rates and per-ship passenger loads compared to 2026 booking trends and inventory management - Macroeconomic demand signals for cruise travel including advance bookings, booking value, and cruise line pricing power through mid-2026 - Potential operational disruptions (weather, port availability, ship maintenance) that could reduce realized sailing capacity or passenger-carrying ability - Comparison to Norwegian's 2025 full-year reported passengers as a baseline for assessing growth or contraction trajectory Contracts: - Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.15 million passengers carried in 2026?: Above 3.15 million — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.1 million passengers carried in 2026?: Above 3.1 million — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.25 million passengers carried in 2026?: Above 3.25 million — 95¢ Kalshi $124 (weight 6%) - Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.2 million passengers carried in 2026?: Above 3.2 million — 94¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 83%) - Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.3 million passengers carried in 2026?: Above 3.3 million — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.35 million passengers carried in 2026?: Above 3.35 million — 62¢ Kalshi $215 (weight 10%) - Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 3.4 million passengers carried in 2026?: Above 3.4 million — 36¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 1%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:49.203Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nclha Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Norwegian%20Cruise%20Line%20Holdings%20Ltd.%20report%20Above%203.1%20million%20passengers%20carried%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev