82% — Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Nov 1, 2026 Leader: Before Feb 1, 2027 at 82% · Kalshi 82% · 7 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-12 22:04:19 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets currently assess a 90% likelihood that the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act will become law by February 1, 2027. The NDAA is typically passed annually through the legislative process, though timing varies. The probability structure shows meaningful divergence in expected passage dates: only 26% confidence for passage by December 1, 2026, suggesting markets expect passage during the lame-duck session or early 2027. Key drivers include congressional calendar availability, any competing legislative priorities, and potential partisan disagreements over defense policy or related amendments. Historical precedent matters—Congress has passed the NDAA in each fiscal year since 1962, though occasionally with delays into the following year. The December 1, 2026 contract carries the highest trading volume, indicating active uncertainty about whether the bill clears before year-end. Key factors: - Historical track record: Congress has passed a defense authorization bill every fiscal year since 1962, establishing strong legislative precedent - Contract price gradient: The 26% confidence for Dec 1 versus 90% for Feb 1 suggests markets expect passage during lame-duck or Q1 2027 rather than before year-end - Congressional calendar: Availability of floor time in fall 2026 and willingness to prioritize NDAA over other legislation will materially affect passage timing - Partisan disputes: Disagreements over specific amendments or policy riders unrelated to core defense authorization could delay final passage - Fiscal deadline pressure: NDAA typically becomes law before fiscal year begins (October 1), but legislative slippage sometimes extends passage into following fiscal year Contracts: - Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Feb 1, 2027?: Before Feb 1, 2027 — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 25, 2026?: Before Dec 25, 2026 — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 15, 2026?: Before Dec 15, 2026 — 40¢ Kalshi $751 (weight 63%) - Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 6¢ Kalshi $439 (weight 37%) - Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T21:20:50.803Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ndaa-26jul Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20designated%20as%2C%20or%20substantively%20serving%20as%2C%20the%20National%20Defense%20Authorization%20Act%20for%20Fiscal%20Year%202027%20by%20authorizing%20national%20defense%20programs%20or%20defense%20policy%20for%20that%20fiscal%20year%20become%20law%20before%20Nov%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev