7% — Will Copart be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026
Kalshi 7% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 19:23:33 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 6% probability that Copart will be removed from the Nasdaq-100 index during the third quarter of 2026. Index composition changes occur when companies are added or deleted based on criteria including market capitalization, liquidity, and fundamentals. Copart would face removal if its market cap fell significantly, if the index reconstitution committee determined it no longer met inclusion standards, or if a major corporate action occurred. The Nasdaq-100 reconstitutes periodically, with changes typically announced quarterly. The main drivers of removal risk are stock price declines that reduce market capitalization below thresholds relative to other index constituents, deteriorating trading volume, or fundamental business deterioration. Key dates include the next scheduled index review announcement, which would signal whether Copart faces any inclusion risk. Current trading volume and market positioning suggest low removal probability, though unexpected earnings misses or sector downturns could alter this assessment.

Key factors:
- Copart's market capitalization relative to Nasdaq-100 inclusion thresholds and other index constituents
- Trading volume and liquidity metrics compared to index requirements
- Scheduled index reconstitution dates and announcement timeline in Q3 2026
- Stock price performance and market cap changes in the months leading to potential reconstitution
- Any announced corporate actions, mergers, or material business developments affecting index eligibility

Contracts:
- Will DexCom be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026?: DexCom — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will GE HealthCare be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026?: GE HealthCare — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Kraft Heinz be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026?: Kraft Heinz — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Copart be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026?: Copart — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Workday be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026?: Workday — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Strategy be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026?: Strategy — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T19:20:49.304Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ndxremoveq
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Copart%20be%20removed%20from%20the%20Nasdaq-100%20in%20Q3%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev