83% — Will NEAR trimmed mean be above $2.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Above $4.00 at 83% · Kalshi 83% · 4 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is asking whether NEAR Protocol's token will trade above $2.00 by year-end 2026, with traders currently assessing this outcome as slightly less likely than not at 45%. The probability reflects uncertainty about NEAR's competitive positioning in the Layer-1 blockchain ecosystem, its adoption metrics, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions over the next five months. Upward pressure would come from increased developer activity, partnership announcements, or positive performance relative to competing chains; downward pressure would stem from network congestion issues, market-wide crypto weakness, or loss of developer mindshare. The primary resolution factors include NEAR's actual transaction volume and validator economics through Q4 2026, along with macroeconomic conditions affecting risk asset valuations during that period.

Key factors:
- NEAR's trimmed mean price is currently below $2.00, requiring approximately 100%+ appreciation to resolve positively
- The contract pricing across multiple strike levels ($2.00-$4.00) shows relatively consistent probabilities, suggesting limited differentiation in trader conviction across price tiers
- Zero 24-hour volume across all tracked contracts indicates minimal recent trading activity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- NEAR's network fundamentals including validator participation rates, developer activity, and transaction throughput through Q4 2026 will directly impact investor confidence
- Cryptocurrency market correlation effects from macro trends, regulatory developments, and competing Layer-1 protocols are material to resolution

Contracts:
- Will NEAR trimmed mean be above $4.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.00 — 83¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 75%)
- Will NEAR trimmed mean be above $4.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.50 — 12¢ Kalshi $349 (weight 25%)
- Will NEAR trimmed mean be above $5.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.00 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will NEAR trimmed mean be above $5.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.50 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:20:51.712Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nearmaxy-near
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20NEAR%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20above%20%242.00%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev