69% — Will NEAR trimmed mean be below $0.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Below $1.50 at 69% · Kalshi 69% · 3 contracts · $47 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 14:14:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract measures whether NEAR's trimmed mean price will fall below $0.50 by year-end 2026. At 74% probability for the $1.50 threshold and only 3% for $0.50, traders assign low probability to extreme downside but expect continued price decline over the next five months. The pricing reflects NEAR's recent performance and broader cryptocurrency market conditions. The spread between contracts ($1.50 at 74% versus $0.50 at 3%) suggests traders see moderate weakness as likely but complete collapse as unlikely. Resolution depends on market sentiment toward NEAR's ecosystem development, adoption metrics, and macroeconomic factors affecting crypto valuations. Year-end typically brings holiday trading patterns and tax-loss harvesting that could accelerate downward or stabilize prices.

Key factors:
- NEAR's current spot price relative to $0.50 and $1.50 resistance levels; distance-to-target determines probability of crossing thresholds
- Trimmed mean calculation method used by contract issuer; spreads and outlier treatment directly affect final settlement value
- Network adoption metrics and developer activity through 2026; declining on-chain usage would pressure prices downward
- Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements; NEAR historically correlates with major crypto market cycles
- Kalshi contract liquidity ($0 24h volume across all three tiers) suggests low trading interest and potentially wide bid-ask spreads affecting price reliability

Contracts:
- Will NEAR trimmed mean be below $1.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Below $1.50 — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will NEAR trimmed mean be below $1.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Below $1.00 — 23¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 100%)
- Will NEAR trimmed mean be below $0.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Below $0.50 — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.812Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "69% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nearminy-near
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20NEAR%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20below%20%240.50%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev