3% — Top US Netflix Show on May 4, 2026
Kalshi 4% · 2 contracts · $43K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 21:55:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract predicts which show will rank as the top series on Netflix's US charts on May 4, 2026. Man on Fire: Season 1 currently leads at 4%, suggesting traders assign low probability to any single show dominating the charts that specific day. Netflix rankings shift frequently based on release timing, viewing patterns, and algorithm changes. The market is pricing in substantial uncertainty around which titles will trend, with the top outcome below 5%. Factors that would move this probability include the actual release schedule for Netflix originals in early May, competing platforms' releases, and real-time US viewership data as May 4 approaches. Resolution occurs when Netflix publishes official top-10 rankings for that date.

Key factors:
- Man on Fire: Season 1 has the highest current bid at 4%, but second-place Running Point: Season 2 trades at 27% on the global chart, indicating fragmentation across markets and uncertainty about US-specific performance
- Netflix's US top-show rankings update daily and depend on algorithmic weighting of hours watched, subscriber engagement, and new releases—any major drop or unexpected surge in a competing title could shift the leader
- The contract resolves May 4, 2026, giving approximately one day for final market adjustment; current low probabilities suggest no show has overwhelming prediction consensus for that specific date
- Trading volume of $33,956 in 24 hours on the leader indicates moderate but not exceptional liquidity for a binary outcome market
- The 1% gap between the leader (4%) and runner-up (3%) suggests marginal differentiation between top contenders rather than a clear consensus favorite

Contracts:
- Top US Netflix Show on May 4, 2026?: Man on Fire: Season 1 — 3¢ Kalshi $29K (weight 52%)
- Top US Netflix Show on May 4, 2026?: Running Point: Season 2 — 4¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 48%)

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/netflixrankshow
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Top%20US%20Netflix%20Show%20on%20May%204%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev