83% — How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026
Leader: At least 25 at 83% · Kalshi 83% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 01:45:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 90% probability that Neuralink will have implanted at least 25 people by the end of 2026. This reflects confidence in the company's near-term surgical progress, following its first human implant in January 2024. The probability distribution narrows sharply above 25—only a 71% chance of 30+ implants and 32% for 50+—suggesting traders expect measured expansion rather than rapid scaling. Key uncertainties include manufacturing capacity, patient recruitment and screening timelines, and regulatory approval pace for expanded trial sites. The main resolution catalyst will be Neuralink's public disclosures and announcements, likely in quarterly updates or clinical trial communications throughout 2026, which will confirm the actual implant count achieved by year-end.

Key factors:
- Neuralink's manufacturing capability and ability to produce implants at the rate needed to reach 25+ surgical procedures by December 2026
- Rate of patient recruitment and medical screening for trial candidates, which constrains how many procedures can be performed
- Regulatory decisions on expanding trial sites and protocols beyond the current FDA-approved trials
- No major adverse events or serious complications in existing implant recipients that would halt enrollment
- Public disclosure frequency and reliability of implant-count reporting throughout 2026

Contracts:
- How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?: At least 25 — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?: At least 30 — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?: At least 40 — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?: At least 50 — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?: At least 75 — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?: At least 100 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T01:20:49.317Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/neuralinkcount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20people%20will%20Neuralink%20have%20implanted%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev