84% — Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
Leader: $20M at 84% · Polymarket 84% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:25:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract reflects market participants' view that Neutrl's fully diluted valuation (FDV) will exceed $100 million within one day of its launch. The 64% probability indicates traders consider this outcome likely but not certain. The market's confidence level is notably influenced by comparable token launches and typical FDV levels at debut, as well as the project's pre-launch positioning and investor interest. Key upside pressures include strong demand at launch and early trading momentum, while downside risks involve post-launch volatility and valuation resets. Resolution depends entirely on Neutrl's actual FDV calculation one day after launch becomes public, which represents the single definitive catalyst that will determine whether this contract settles as true or false.

Key factors:
- Current price of 64% reflects material probability but not consensus certainty; runner-up outcome at 54% shows significant remaining disagreement
- Related contracts show the market pricing lower FDV thresholds ($500M, $100M brackets) at substantially higher probabilities, suggesting FDV floor expectations vary by contract
- Volume concentration in competing contracts ($5580-$6051 daily volume) indicates active trading around adjacent price points rather than concentrated conviction
- Polymarket aggregation from 7 distinct contracts means outcome reflects distributed opinion rather than single centralized forecast
- Resolution requires precise FDV calculation methodology one day post-launch; ambiguity in how FDV is measured could influence final settlement

Contracts:
- Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M — 84¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M — 58¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M — 37¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M — 29¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M — 12¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $700M — 8¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Neutrl FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/neutrl-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Neutrl%20FDV%20above%20___%20one%20day%20after%20launch%3F%3A%20%24100M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev