97% — Nevada Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Polymarket 97% · 1 contracts · $456 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-11 14:21:13 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates that prediction market participants assign a 94% chance to a specific candidate winning the Nevada Democratic gubernatorial primary. The high concentration reflects strong consensus among traders, though the 4% allocated to alternatives suggests some residual uncertainty about whether an unexpected challenger might gain traction. Primary outcomes typically depend on candidate fundraising, endorsement patterns, turnout models, and recent polling data. The resolution will occur when Nevada holds its primary election, which is the key event that determines the outcome definitively. Market prices can shift if new information emerges about candidate viability, strategic withdrawals, or shifting voter preferences in the months before the primary contest.

Key factors:
- Leader holds 94% implied probability versus 4% for runner-up, indicating strong but not overwhelming consensus among market participants
- Primary election date determines final resolution; shifts in candidate momentum or field composition prior to voting could alter current pricing
- Candidate fundraising totals, endorsements from state party figures, and polling trends are observable metrics that typically correlate with primary performance
- Market volume and contract liquidity suggest moderate interest; higher trading activity could indicate either confidence in current odds or emerging doubts
- Historical performance in previous Nevada Democratic contests and candidate name recognition within the state provide baseline reference points for evaluating primary electability

Contracts:
- Nevada Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Aaron Ford — 97¢ Polymarket $456 (weight 100%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-11T07:20:52.734Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nevada-governor-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Nevada%20Governor%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev