29% — New England Revolution vs. Charlotte FC Kalshi 29% · 5 contracts · $16K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 07:58:36 UTC Why this matters: This 29% probability reflects market expectations that New England will defeat Charlotte in their upcoming matchup. The relatively modest odds suggest the market views this as a competitive contest rather than a heavily favored outcome. Key drivers include New England's recent performance trajectory, roster composition, and head coaching stability under Mike Vrabel, balanced against Charlotte's competitive standing. The probability could shift based on injury reports, betting line movements from sportsbooks, or pre-game team announcements in the days leading up to kickoff. Resolution will occur on the scheduled game date when the final score is determined. Key factors: - New England's win-loss record and recent form heading into the matchup - Roster health status and availability of key players for both teams - Mike Vrabel's coaching effectiveness in his inaugural season with New England - Charlotte's offensive and defensive performance metrics relative to New England's - Historical head-to-head records and situational factors like home-field advantage Contracts: - Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England — 4¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 63%) - Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel — 94¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 17%) - Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: New England — 8¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 16%) - Will New England win the Pro Football AFC East Division?: New England — 36¢ Kalshi $300 (weight 2%) - What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Stays with New England or Retires — 4¢ Kalshi $256 (weight 2%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:49.295Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/new-england-revolution-vs-charlotte-fc Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=New%20England%20Revolution%20vs.%20Charlotte%20FC Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev