48% — New England Revolution vs. Charlotte FC - More Markets
Kalshi 48% · 2 contracts · $10K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:59:00 UTC

Why this matters:
This 37% probability represents the combined likelihood that New England Revolution will win their next match against Charlotte FC based on aggregated market data. The significant 54-percentage-point gap between venues suggests disagreement about either team fundamentals or upcoming roster changes. The New England markets are heavily influenced by speculation about player movements—particularly A.J. Brown's next team and managerial decisions—which adds noise to the pure match outcome signal. The match itself would resolve this uncertainty, though the markets may continue repricing based on team news, injuries, or confirmed transfers before kickoff. Bettors should note that related contracts on adjacent topics (like head coach assignments) may be conflating different resolution criteria with the actual game result.

Key factors:
- Kalshi's contracts average 58% for New England outcomes versus Polymarket's 4%, indicating methodological or information differences between venues rather than consensus market belief
- A.J. Brown's next team contract (85¢ on Kalshi with $7,549 daily volume) dominates trading activity and may be driving New England probability upward through association rather than match-specific factors
- The match outcome itself has no confirmed date in the provided data; resolution timing and whether roster changes occur before kickoff will materially affect predictive value
- Polymarket's contracts show near-zero volume on Ronaldo speculation, suggesting low confidence or utility in that signal
- Three of five top contracts reference non-match outcomes (NFL championship, head coach, player transfers), creating potential for basis risk if match probability diverges from these correlated markets

Contracts:
- Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel — 92¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 90%)
- Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 10%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:51.140Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/new-england-revolution-vs-charlotte-fc-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=New%20England%20Revolution%20vs.%20Charlotte%20FC%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev