4% — New Jersey Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Polymarket 4% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 21:05:03 UTC

Why this matters:
This 97% probability indicates market participants assess one specific candidate as heavily favored to win the New Jersey Democratic Senate primary. The high concentration reflects either strong polling data, significant fundraising advantages, or establishment endorsements backing the frontrunner. Conversely, a 3% probability on the alternative suggests limited confidence in challenger viability, though primary dynamics can shift with late-stage endorsements, debate performance, or unexpected campaign developments. The resolution will occur on New Jersey's primary election date, when voters cast ballots and determine the Democratic nominee for the general election. Market confidence at this level typically reflects available polling and candidate positioning weeks before voting.

Key factors:
- Primary election date and voter turnout patterns in New Jersey Democratic electorate
- Relative fundraising and cash-on-hand figures between frontrunner and challenger(s)
- Public polling data released in the final weeks before the primary
- Endorsements from New Jersey political figures, unions, and Democratic establishment organizations
- Campaign spending and advertising intensity in the final period before voting

Contracts:
- New Jersey Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Gregory Tomaini — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-04T01:20:12.748Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/new-jersey-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=New%20Jersey%20Democratic%20Senate%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev