45% — New Zealand Election
Leader: Turnout: 80-82% at 45% · Polymarket 45% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 23:39:15 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Contracts:
- New Zealand Election: Turnout: 80-82% — 45¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- New Zealand Election: Turnout: <76% — 39¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- New Zealand Election: Turnout: 78-80% — 28¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- New Zealand Election: Turnout: 76-78% — 27¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- New Zealand Election: Turnout: 84%+ — 15¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- New Zealand Election: Turnout: 82-84% — 9¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-28T23:20:09.617Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/new-zealand-election
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=New%20Zealand%20Election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev