65% — When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA
Leader: before April 2027 at 65% · Kalshi 65% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 15:34:43 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 66% probability reflects market expectations that Beam Therapeutics will submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) for risto-cel, a gene-editing therapy for a blood disorder, to the FDA by a specific deadline. The current level balances clinical trial progress and regulatory timelines against typical delays in manufacturing scale-up and FDA interactions for novel therapies. Key drivers include whether ongoing Phase 3 trial data meets efficacy and safety endpoints, manufacturing readiness for commercial production, and any pre-submission meetings with the FDA that signal timeline confidence. The main catalyst will be Beam's next earnings call or investor presentation, where management typically provides updated BLA submission guidance. Contract pricing shows meaningful disagreement about whether submission occurs before December versus earlier, suggesting uncertainty around near-term trial readouts and regulatory feedback.

Key factors:
- Phase 3 clinical trial enrollment status and interim efficacy/safety data—delays in patient recruitment or adverse events would reduce submission probability
- Manufacturing scale-up progress for risto-cel production capacity, as commercial manufacturing readiness is a stated prerequisite for BLA filing
- Pre-BLA meeting outcomes with FDA that clarify regulatory requirements and identify any deficiencies that could delay submission
- Beam's publicly stated BLA submission timeline from most recent earnings guidance and investor communications
- Competitive pressure from COMPASS Pathways' psilocybin program, which shows market interest in novel psychiatric/neurological therapies and may affect Beam's priority

Contracts:
- When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?: before April 2027 — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?: before 2027 — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?: before December — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?: before November — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?: before October — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?: before September — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T15:20:51.209Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "65% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev