81% — When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA
Leader: before April 2027 at 81% · Kalshi 81% · 6 contracts · $20 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 05:40:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 81% probability reflects market participants' expectation that Intellia Therapeutics will submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) for lonvo-z to the FDA before April 2027. The current price suggests confidence in near-term regulatory progress, likely supported by positive clinical data or statements from the company about submission timelines. This probability would decline if clinical trials face delays, safety concerns emerge, or Intellia revises its regulatory strategy. The main uncertainty centers on whether the company can complete Phase 3 data package preparation and file before the April 2027 deadline. A near-term catalyst would be an earnings call, conference presentation, or clinical trial readout that either confirms or pushes back the expected submission date.

Key factors:
- Recent clinical trial data availability or announced completion status for lonvo-z Phase 3 studies
- Intellia's public guidance on BLA submission timeline given during investor communications
- FDA feedback from pre-submission meetings, which typically clarifies regulatory pathway requirements
- Competitive pressure or market conditions that might accelerate or delay manufacturing and regulatory readiness
- Any safety signals or efficacy findings that could extend development timelines beyond April 2027

Contracts:
- When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?: before April 2027 — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?: before December — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?: before 2027 — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?: before November — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?: before October — 39¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 78%)
- When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?: before September — 12¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 22%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T05:20:48.918Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/newdrugappntla-lonv
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=When%20will%20Intellia%20Therapeutics%2C%20Inc.%20submit%20a%20BLA%20for%20Lonvoguran%20Ziclumeran%20(lonvo-z)%20to%20the%20FDA
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev