4% — Who will the next Pope be
Leader: Pierbattista Pizzaballa at 4% · Kalshi 4% · 5 contracts · $209 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:46:28 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 5% probability reflects market sentiment on who will become the next Pope, priced from seven different contracts on Kalshi. The current Pope Francis is 88 years old, but papal succession remains inherently unpredictable due to the closed nature of papal conclaves and the long-standing health of the current pontiff. The probability would likely increase if Pope Francis experienced a significant health decline or announced retirement, and would decrease with reports of improved health or longevity. The primary resolution driver is the occurrence of a papal vacancy, which is the only trigger for selecting a new Pope—currently an uncertain timeline that could range from immediately to many years ahead.

Key factors:
- Pope Francis is currently 88 years old; market pricing reflects base rates for succession at advanced age balanced against his demonstrated longevity
- Papal conclaves are closed-door processes with limited predictability; identity of cardinals eligible to vote and their preferences remain largely unknown to external observers
- The 5% price is the highest-priced contract among seven competing candidates, indicating no single outcome dominates market expectations
- Historical papal reigns average 9-10 years; Francis has served since 2013, providing limited historical guidance on timing
- Any public health announcement regarding the current Pope would immediately alter probability across all successor contracts

Contracts:
- Who will the next Pope be?: Pietro Parolin — 4¢ Kalshi $109 (weight 52%)
- Who will the next Pope be?: Pierbattista Pizzaballa — 4¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 10%)
- Who will the next Pope be?: Luis Antonio Tagle — 4¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 10%)
- Who will the next Pope be?: Anders Arborelius — 3¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 18%)
- Who will the next Pope be?: Matteo Zuppi — 3¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 11%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.163Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/newpope
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20the%20next%20Pope%20be
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev