58% — Who will be the next CEO of Goldman Sachs
Leader: John Waldron at 58% · Kalshi 58% · 2 contracts · $18 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 03:30:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets currently assign a 35% probability that John Waldron will be Goldman Sachs's next CEO, based on aggregated trading across prediction contracts. Waldron, the bank's current President and Chief Operating Officer, is positioned as the frontrunner, though significant uncertainty remains about the timing and eventual successor. The leadership transition probability reflects expectations about current CEO David Solomon's tenure and internal succession planning. Factors that would move this probability include announcements from Goldman's board regarding Solomon's future, changes in the bank's strategic direction, or signals about Waldron's health or career trajectory. The single largest catalyst would be an official statement from Goldman Sachs about CEO succession plans or a confirmation of Solomon's departure timeline.

Key factors:
- John Waldron holds the COO position, traditionally a pathway to CEO succession at major financial institutions
- David Solomon's tenure as CEO and any public statements about his planned duration or retirement timeline
- Board composition and publicly reported succession planning discussions at Goldman Sachs
- Relative compensation, promotion visibility, and retention of other internal executive candidates competing for the role
- Market conditions and Goldman's operational performance, which typically influence board decisions about leadership continuity

Contracts:
- Who will be the next CEO of Goldman Sachs?: John Waldron — 58¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 49%)
- Who will be the next CEO of Goldman Sachs?: Marc Nachmann — 6¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 51%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T03:20:48.959Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "58% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/newrolegs
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20the%20next%20CEO%20of%20Goldman%20Sachs
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev