39% — Will the next President confirm 2 Supreme Court justices Leader: 1 at 39% · Kalshi 39% · 3 contracts · $2 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:33 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This market indicates a 31% chance that the next U.S. President will appoint two Supreme Court justices during their term. The probability reflects expectations about both the likelihood of specific candidates winning the 2024/2028 election and the number of Court vacancies likely to occur during their presidency. The forecast is influenced by two primary factors: the timeline and age of current justices (determining vacancy likelihood) and uncertainty about which candidate will win the presidency, since different presidents may have different confirmation timelines and political circumstances. The main resolution event will occur once the next presidential term begins and any justice retirements or deaths are announced, making the actual number of vacancies during the administration clear. Key factors: - Current ages and tenure lengths of sitting justices determine expected vacancies over the next four-year term - Market prices for different presidential candidates (Newsom 16¢, Vance 18¢, Rubio 15¢) show no single frontrunner, spreading the probability pool across multiple scenarios - The 31% level implies roughly 2 in 3 odds against two confirmations, suggesting markets view single or zero confirmations as the base case - Senate composition following the next election affects confirmation likelihood for any vacancies that arise - Historical confirmation speeds and partisan dynamics vary significantly by president, impacting how quickly vacancies could be filled during a term Contracts: - Will the next President confirm 1 Supreme Court justices?: 1 — 39¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 100%) - Will the next President confirm 2 Supreme Court justices?: 2 — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the next President confirm 0 Supreme Court justices?: 0 — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.618Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/newscotusconf Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20next%20President%20confirm%202%20Supreme%20Court%20justices Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev