13% — Who will be the next James Bond?
Kalshi 13% · 12 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:29 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond?: Jacob Elordi — 17¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 32%)
- Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond?: Callum Turner — 43¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 27%)
- Will Theo James be the next James Bond?: Theo James — 3¢ Kalshi $693 (weight 14%)
- Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?: Aaron Taylor-Johnson — 8¢ Kalshi $686 (weight 14%)
- Will Aaron Pierre be the next James Bond?: Aaron Pierre — 4¢ Kalshi $624 (weight 13%)
- Will Josh O'Connor be the next James Bond?: Josh O'Connor — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond?: Henry Cavill — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Lorde — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.204Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/next-james-bond
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20the%20next%20James%20Bond%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev