12% — Who will be the next James Bond?
Kalshi 12% · 15 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 15:26:09 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond?: Callum Turner — 29¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 78%)
- Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond?: Jacob Elordi — 13¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%)
- Will Aaron Pierre be the next James Bond?: Aaron Pierre — 8¢ Kalshi $261 (weight 3%)
- Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?: Aaron Taylor-Johnson — 16¢ Kalshi $114 (weight 1%)
- Will Theo James be the next James Bond?: Theo James — 7¢ Kalshi $81 (weight 1%)
- Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond?: Henry Cavill — 4¢ Kalshi $71 (weight 1%)
- Will Sydney Sweeney perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Sydney Sweeney — 22¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 1%)
- Will Damson Idris be the next James Bond?: Damson Idris — 4¢ Kalshi $39 (weight 0%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T15:20:50.201Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/next-james-bond
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20the%20next%20James%20Bond%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev