94% — Next James Bond actor Leader: No Bond chosen at 94% · Polymarket 94% · 11 contracts · $443 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:25 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes. Why this matters: The 79% probability reflects the market's assessment that no Bond actor will be officially announced in the near term, rather than belief in a specific candidate. This high "no selection" price reflects uncertainty about the timing of the next casting announcement following Daniel Craig's departure. Bond films typically require multi-year development cycles, and MGM/Eon Productions has not publicly committed to a casting timeline. The probability would shift downward if the studio makes an official announcement or if credible reporting suggests an imminent decision. The uncertainty also reflects ongoing speculation among multiple candidates—Callum Turner trades at 54¢ on Kalshi despite only 10¢ on Polymarket, suggesting disagreement about his likelihood. Any formal announcement from producers or leaked details about their selection process would be the primary catalyst to resolve this contract, potentially resolving within 12-36 months based on typical franchise timelines. Key factors: - Callum Turner shows divergent pricing between platforms (54¢ Kalshi vs 10¢ Polymarket), indicating material disagreement about his candidacy among traders - MGM/Eon Productions has made no public casting announcement or timeline commitment as of May 2026 - Substantial 24-hour trading volume on the Callum Turner contract ($4,335) suggests active debate despite low absolute price, indicating genuine uncertainty - Bond film production cycles typically span 3-5 years, meaning casting may not occur for extended period regardless of behind-the-scenes decisions - Multiple candidates trading in single digits (Turner 10¢, ATJ 5¢, Elba 3¢) shows market lacks consensus alternative, supporting the high "no selection" price Contracts: - Next James Bond actor?: No Bond chosen — 94¢ Polymarket $443 (weight 100%) - Next James Bond actor?: Harris Dickinson — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Next James Bond actor?: Jack Lowdon — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Next James Bond actor?: Aaron Taylor-Johnson — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Next James Bond actor?: James Norton — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Next James Bond actor?: Josh O'Connor — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Next James Bond actor?: Paul Mescal — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Next James Bond actor?: Michael B Jordan — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/next-james-bond-actor Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Next%20James%20Bond%20actor Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev