83% — Next OpenAI Model
Leader: Arena Debut?: 1450+ at 83% · Polymarket 83% · 2 contracts · $32 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 10:18:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market participants' expectation that OpenAI will release a new model with Arena debut performance at or above 1450 by a specified date. The 85% price suggests high confidence in a near-term release, likely driven by OpenAI's historical cadence of major model releases and recent competitive pressure from other labs. The market distinguishes between two capability thresholds (1450+ vs 1470+), with the higher bar trading 15 points lower, indicating some uncertainty about exact performance tier. Resolution hinges on when OpenAI announces and publicly benchmarks its next model. If no release occurs within the contract timeframe, the probability would decline; conversely, early announcements with strong Arena results would reinforce the current high probability. The relatively tight spread between the two contracts suggests the market views both outcomes as plausible but expects the lower threshold to be crossed if any model is released.

Key factors:
- OpenAI's typical release schedule shows major models roughly 12-18 months apart; a release by mid-2026 would align with expected timing from their GPT-4 era
- Arena benchmark scores are publicly measured and verifiable; the difference between 1450 and 1470 performance tiers reflects discrete technical capability gaps
- 24-hour volume of $122 on the 1450+ contract indicates ongoing market interest, while $0 volume on the 1470+ contract suggests less active trading on the higher threshold
- The 15-point probability gap between contracts (85% vs 70%) reveals market uncertainty about whether released capabilities will meet the higher bar, not whether a model will launch
- No scheduled OpenAI event date is publicly announced as of the knowledge cutoff, making the resolution timeline itself a source of contract uncertainty

Contracts:
- Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?: 1450+ — 83¢ Polymarket $32 (weight 100%)
- Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?: 1470+ — 64¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/next-openai-model
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Next%20OpenAI%20Model
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev